Building the evidence to stop Africa flying blind on AI

Artificial intelligence is reshaping the global economy faster than we can grasp its social and economic effects. For Africa, that tension is acute. No region has more to gain from AI - and no region has more to lose if its risks are ignored.

By 2030, AI could add $2.9 trillion to African economies, lift 11 million people out of poverty, and create half a million jobs a year. Investment is ramping up: in February 2026, the African Development Bank and UNDP pledged $10 billion for AI on the continent.

But for all the money, hype, and ambition, we know strikingly little about how AI is actually affecting Africa’s societies and economies. Governments are being asked to make big calls on industry, trade, labour, and data – but they’re basing those decisions on evidence from the US, UK, and Europe. Those places don’t share Africa’s economic, regulatory, or social realities.

To fill that gap, the International Development Research Centre has launched a funding round for rigorous, Africa-focused research on AI’s impacts. They want to give policymakers real evidence, not assumptions. Grounding AI policy in African research isn’t a luxury, it’s the only way to build sound policy, fair investment, and a sustainable AI future.

Genesis was brought in to design the research agenda. We pinpointed the most urgent, under-evidenced questions that African policymakers need answered. The agenda falls into four themes.

Labour and livelihoods

Africa’s working-age population will double to 1.6 billion by 2050. AI is already reshaping jobs - automating entry-level roles and introducing algorithmic management in the informal sector. Early signs suggest women in sectors like BPO are at higher risk of automation than men. Without local evidence, policy and training will stay reactive, not targeted.

Productivity

Around 40% of African institutions are already using generative AI. But there’s almost no solid proof that this is boosting real productivity. Without that evidence, Africa risks paying for the tech while missing out on the rewards.

Africa in the global AI ecosystem

By 2030, 85% of AI’s projected $15.7 trillion global GDP boost is expected to go to North America, China, and Europe. The current setup risks entrenching a new kind of colonialism: African data mined as raw material, products sold back as services, wealth generated elsewhere. Trade negotiators are signing digital deals without fully knowing what they’re giving away.

Social impact and public services

AI could make public services fairer and more accessible. But it also brings serious risks: spreading misinformation, fuelling identity-based violence, and creating forms of exclusion that policymakers can’t easily see – or fix.

The full policy briefs are available below. For early findings from the ongoing research, visit the IDRC project page.