Future growth scenarios for Africa

How will Africa fare in the next 10 years and beyond? To tackle this question, Genesis was commissioned to write a research paper on what future growth scenarios could look like for the continent over the next decade. The work was background research for the African Development Bank’s strategy for 2023 to 2032.

First, the Genesis team identified and analysed key drivers of success including the “megatrends” that are at play in Africa and how these are likely to shape the region’s economic, political and social landscapes in the next decade and beyond.

The team then sketched plausible scenarios of how African economies and the continent as a whole might develop over the coming decades, and demonstrated how policy choices could influence the scenarios that manifested. These scenarios were based on two different growth paths: “Where Africa is headed” and “The Africa we want”.

Lastly, Genesis identified critical pathways in terms of policies and investment that would be required to achieve the desired state, and examined the bank’s role with regard to these.