Developing the Teacher Forecasting Framework in Tanzania

As Tanzania’s student population continues to grow, so does the need for more teachers to maintain optimal teacher-pupil ratios and uphold the quality of education. This demand has been further heightened by the implementation of the Universal Basic Education plan, which guarantees 12 years of free education by eliminating fees in government primary schools and tuition in ordinary secondary schools.

To address this challenge, the Tanzanian Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MoEST), in collaboration with UNICEF, Genesis Analytics, development partners, and other stakeholders, has developed the Teacher Forecasting Framework—a strategic tool designed to enhance teacher planning and recruitment across pre-primary, primary, and secondary schools.

The Teacher Forecasting Framework provides a medium-term outlook on teacher demand, training and recruitment, ensuring alignment with the objectives of the Education Sector Development Plan (ESDP). By offering detailed projections, the framework helps match student-teacher intake with recruitment needs, considering factors such as:

• School-age population growth

• Current teacher supply, separated by subject and gender

• Teacher attrition rates

This initiative complements ongoing efforts under the Education Program for Results (EPforR) by aligning teacher projections with national teacher allocation policies for both primary and secondary schools.

With this forward-looking approach, Tanzania is taking proactive steps toward building a stronger, more sustainable education workforce—one that meets the needs of its growing student population and supports the country’s commitment to quality education for all.