Genesis Analytics study highlights high returns on nutrition investment in Tajikistan

Despite modest progress in reducing malnutrition rates, Tajikistan continues to face challenges with nutritional deficiencies, with prevalence rates far exceeding regional averages. Persistent food insecurity, widespread poverty and inadequate access to healthcare have left vulnerable groups, particularly women and children at risk, underscoring the need for sustained investment and systemic reform.

A new report by Genesis Analytics in partnership with the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population and Unicef Tajikistan has analysed Tajikistan’s historic nutrition spending, projected future costs and considered what would happen if nothing changes. The findings show that while malnutrition rates have declined in recent years, they remain nearly double those of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The social and economic toll of poor nutrition makes a compelling case for increased public funding, yet current funding is not always stable or consistent.

A financing gap threatens progress

It can be difficult to accurately track spending on nutrition in Tajikistan. Nutrition programs involve many different areas, and current budget structures don't always make it clear where the money is going.

The analysis suggests that funding has, at best, stagnated over the past five years, and in some cases declined. High-impact interventions, particularly those reliant on essential commodities, are almost entirely dependent on inconsistent donor support. Without clear tracking of nutrition funding across different government budgets, financing can be uncertain.

The country’s national nutrition strategy, the Plan, could benefit from more specific details, better coordination and improved monitoring. 

The cost of inaction

The economic argument for investment is unequivocal. Scaling up interventions would avert thousands of malnutrition cases and disabilities, while every TJS 1 invested is projected to yield TJS 4.1 in socioeconomic benefits.

Not taking action could have negative effects. If the Plan is not implemented, Tajikistan stands to lose over TJS 4.6 billion in potential benefits. The impact goes beyond health: malnutrition can hinder people's development, increase poverty and put a strain on public services.

Systemic barriers demand reform

Tajikistan’s public financial management (PFM) systems could be improved to better track and use nutrition spending. Areas of improvement include budget planning, implementation, and oversight. While a detailed review of PFM wasn't done, the report points out key areas in the Plan that could be strengthened:

1. Clearer frameworks for implementation

2. Stronger coordination and leadership

3. Defined timelines and accountability

4. Transparent and costed financing

A call for political commitment

The report’s findings present Tajikistan with a choice: invest now to secure long-term gains or face escalating health and economic burdens. While donor support has been vital, reliance on external funding is unsustainable. Domestic resource mobilisation backed by PFM reforms is critical. The report concludes that without decisive action, Tajikistan risks reversing its progress and facing ongoing issues with poverty.